Texas can make the College Football Playoff by winning its remaining games and ideally finishing with no more than two losses, although a three-loss scenario remains possible if other results work in their favor and chaos occurs in the rankings. The most straightforward path is to defeat Arkansas and then Texas A&M, with a win against A&M allowing two chances to secure a playoff berth: by either winning the SEC Championship (for a top-four seed and a crucial first- round bye) or, with a competitive loss to Georgia in that title game, still securing a strong seed in the at-large pool.

Required Wins

• Texas must beat Arkansas next, then their rival Texas A&M, currently ranked No. 3, to stay firmly in the playoff hunt.

• Winning the SEC Championship game would grant Texas the highest possible playoff seed and potentially a first-round bye in the new 12-team format.

Impact of Losses

• If Texas loses to Texas A&M and doesn't reach the SEC Championship, its fate depends on other teams losing and the selection committee favoring its résumé relative to other two- or three-loss at-large candidates.

• If the Longhorns win out but lose the SEC title game to Georgia, they are expected to earn a 6 or 7 seed, which means a first-round home game.

Scenarios for Playoff Inclusion

• Win out and finish 10-2: Texas is essentially a lock for the playoff.

• Lose once (to A&M or Georgia): Texas still likely makes it as an at-large selection, but the seed depends on the nature of the loss.

• Lose twice: Texas would need significant help from other teams above and around them faltering and could only sneak in as one of the final at-large teams if the committee views their résumé favorably.

Playoff Seeding Structure

• The four highest-ranked conference champions get a first-round bye. The remaining spots are filled by the next eight highest-ranked teams, who will play in the first round.

Summary

Texas controls its own destiny with two games remaining: win both, and they are essentially in. A single loss does not eliminate them but makes their path dependent on the selection committee and results elsewhere. Multiple losses require significant upsets and luck to make the playoff bracket.