Civil wars typically start under conditions where a country is politically unstable, often in a state known as "anocracy" — a state between democracy and autocracy. Key factors contributing to the start of civil wars include intense political factionalism (often along ethnic or religious lines), democratic backsliding, political resentment, and the loss of hope that peaceful means can resolve grievances. Civil wars today tend to start with sporadic violence and terror, involving decentralized insurgency groups using guerrilla tactics rather than conventional armies. Social media can accelerate tensions by uniting extremists and fostering division. These conflicts often begin quietly and escalate, with insurgents targeting political leaders and specific groups rather than confronting government militaries head-on.

Key Conditions for Civil War Outbreak

• Transition periods where democracy weakens or autocracy begins to take hold increase civil war risks.
• Political parties and groups dividing along identity lines create factionalism, which is a strong predictor of civil war.
• Loss of status or power by a previously dominant faction often triggers violent conflict.
• Persistent political polarization and lack of faith in peaceful resolution mechanisms escalate tensions.

Nature of Modern Civil Wars

• In contrast to historical civil wars with formal armies, modern civil wars usually involve multiple insurgent militias.
• Violence often targets civilians, political opponents, and minority groups through terrorism, assassinations, and guerrilla tactics.
• The role of social media in spreading extremist narratives and organizing factions accelerates conflict onset.

Examples and Context

• Barbara F. Walter analyzes various cases globally, including conflicts in Syria, Yugoslavia, and recent political unrest in the United States, to highlight how these factors converge to cause civil wars.
• The United States is cited as currently being in an "anocracy" state, with indicators of increased political factionalism and instability.

In summary, civil wars start primarily due to political instability marked by factionalism, weakened democratic institutions, and escalating political violence often fueled by identity-based divisions and exacerbated by modern technologies like social media.