The likelihood of a U.S. government shutdown by the end of September 2025 is currently high. Key points influencing this conclusion are:

• The Senate recently rejected competing stopgap funding bills from both Republicans and Democrats, which aimed to keep the government funded temporarily past September 30. Neither side secured enough votes to overcome filibusters or reach the necessary threshold.

• The House passed a short-term funding measure to keep the government operating through November 20, but bipartisan support in the Senate, especially from Democrats, remains absent due to disagreements over healthcare and other priorities.

• Both parties hold firm on funding conditions, with Democrats demanding healthcare funding extensions and Republicans opposing these conditions. This deadlock raises the prospects of a shutdown starting October 1, when the new fiscal year begins.

• The Senate will not return until just before the deadline, which limits the time for negotiations to avert a shutdown.

In summary, a government shutdown appears quite likely around October 1, 2025, driven by deep partisan disagreements and legislative gridlock at this late date.