Aurora Australis occurrences vary, but visible displays are possible several times a year during periods of high solar activity and favorable conditions.

• Core idea: The Sun goes through an ~11-year cycle of activity. During solar maximum, geomagnetic storms are more frequent, increasing chances of the Southern Lights. Conversely, during solar minimum, displays are rarer. This cycle means frequencies can range from occasional to frequent in good conditions.

• Best viewing windows: The Southern Lights are more commonly seen in the austral autumn and winter months (roughly March–September in the Southern Hemisphere) when nights are longer and skies darker. However, elevated solar activity (even outside these months) can produce sightings.

• Geographic considerations: In southern latitudes (e.g., Tasmania, southern New Zealand, southern Australia), sightings are more frequent than further north. Clear skies and low light pollution improve the odds, and local aurora alerts or space-weather forecasts can help identify likely nights.

• Observability vs. occurrence: A geomagnetic storm or strong solar wind can produce brighter, eye-visible displays, but even with high activity, weather (cloud cover, moonlight) and timing (the event's location on Earth relative to the solar wind) affect whether you actually see it.

If you’d like, I can tailor expectations to a specific location (e.g., Tasmania or the South Island of New Zealand), or pull recent forecasts and typical seasonal patterns for this year to give you a practical plan for maximizing your chances.