The favorite horse wins the Kentucky Derby about one-third of the time. Specifically, since 1908, the post-time favorite has won 40 out of 117 runnings, which is a success rate of approximately 34.2%. Another source notes the favorite has won 49 times in the history of the race, roughly one-third of all races
. Looking at more recent trends, from 2013 through 2018, the favorite won every Kentucky Derby, showing a period of dominance. However, since 2018, no favorite has won, indicating increased unpredictability in recent years
. Since 2000, closing favorites have won about 43.5% of the races, with a notable improvement after the 2012 points system change that strengthened the fields. Since then, 50% of morning line favorites and 60% of closing favorites have won, though no favorite has won in the last five races
. In summary:
- Overall historical win rate for favorites: ~34%
- Since 2000, closing favorites win about 43.5%
- From 2013-2018, favorites won every year
- No favorites have won in the last five years
- Betting on favorites remains generally favorable despite variability
This reflects the competitive and unpredictable nature of the Kentucky Derby, where favorites win more often than not but upsets are common.
