If Russia wins the war in Ukraine, the consequences would be dire for Ukraine, Europe, and the broader international order. Ukraine would likely be defeated, divided, demoralized, and depopulated, with little support for reconstruction and strong anti-Western political trends. Europe would face increased destabilization, hybrid warfare, and a weakened security order. Globally, Russia’s victory could embolden China and other autocratic powers, lead to nuclear proliferation, and undermine the rules-based international system, making the world more violent and less liberal.
Consequences for Ukraine
- Ukraine would be defeated, divided, and lose large swathes of territory.
- Reconstruction aid and investment would dwindle, causing further population decline.
- Anti-Western sentiment and internal political instability would grow.
- Reforms and EU integration efforts would stall or reverse.
Impact on Europe
- Europe would see heightened hybrid conflict tactics from Russia including sabotage and disinformation.
- Security and political trust in the West, especially in the US and NATO, would be severely shaken.
- Countries near Ukraine would feel existential threats, leading to heightened tensions and military posturing.
Global Repercussions
- Russia’s victory may encourage China to increase pressure on Taiwan and other regional conflicts.
- Other autocratic countries could be emboldened to challenge the current world order.
- Nuclear proliferation risk would increase as countries lose faith in international security guarantees (like Ukraine’s former denuclearization).
Summary
The world following a Russian victory in Ukraine would be less democratic, less peaceful, and marked by increased geopolitical unpredictability and conflict, marking a historic defeat for the West and defenders of the current international order.
