According to the search results, a super El Niño is a weather phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. It is expected to be moderate-to-strong by late fall/early winter. The National Center for Atmospheric Research issued a forecast that the coming winter could bring a super El Niño, with strength rivaling the historic El Niño of 1997-1998. The forecast suggests that it could reach top-tier “super” El Niño strength, a level that in the past has unleashed deadly fires, drought, heat waves, floods, and mudslides around the world. The probability of a strong (but not necessarily "super") El Niño rises above 50% for next fall and winter, where "strong" is defined as Niño-3.4 index values exceeding 1.5C. The El Niño is expected to continue through the winter, providing a major source of confidence. The computer climate models are consistently predicting that El Niño will continue through the winter.