Short answer: Obamacare (the ACA) is facing potential premium spikes and coverage reductions in 2026 if enhanced subsidies expire and Congress does not act. The specific impact depends on policy decisions made in late 2025 and early 2026, but multiple analyses warn of substantial increases in monthly premiums and possible loss of coverage for millions if subsidies lapse. Key points

• Subsidy expiration risk: Enhanced ACA subsidies are set to lapse unless Congress extends them. Several analyses project sharp premium increases for 2026 if subsidies end.

• Magnitude of the impact: Median proposed premium increases in 2026 have been reported around the high single to low double digits by carriers, with some analyses suggesting premium hikes could be substantial once subsidies are removed; for enrollees, this could translate into large out-of-pocket increases.

• Enrollment and coverage effects: If subsidies disappear, millions could lose insurance or see much higher costs, as the number of uninsured could rise by the mid-to-late 2020s according to CBO/KFF projections referenced in major outlets.

• Political dynamics: The fate of subsidies is tied to ongoing debates and potential fiscal negotiations in Congress, with lawmakers weighing extensions against broader budget considerations. Coverage and price outcomes hinge on whether a deal is reached before or during the 2026 open enrollment period.

What to watch going forward

• Open enrollment updates: States and the federal marketplace will publish price previews for 2026 once insurer filings are finalized, revealing the expected premium landscape for subsidized and unsubsidized enrollees.

• Legislative actions: Watch for a potential extension of enhanced subsidies in any spending or reconciliation packages in late 2025 or early 2026. The outcome will largely determine whether premiums remain manageable or rise sharply.

• Coverage implications: Independent analyses consistently warn that without extensions, a notable portion of current enrollees could face significant affordability barriers or lose coverage entirely.

If you want, I can pull the latest specific state-by-state premium changes and subsidy scenarios, or summarize what a few major outlets (e.g., Kaiser Family Foundation analyses, major networks) project for 2026.