Direct answer: As of now, the most likely scenario for who can win the NASCAR Cup Series championship depends on current form, playoff standings, and the specific matchup in the final race. Based on recent seasons and typical title- contending drivers, leading candidates usually include the Championship 4 entrants, with a strong emphasis on drivers who have demonstrated both race pace and consistency in the playoffs. Key points to consider:

• The Championship 4 typically consists of four drivers who have advanced through the playoff rounds and qualified for the final race showdown. The winner is the driver who finishes highest in the final event among those four, regardless of their regular-season points. This format has been in place since the playoff structure was established, and it heavily weights performance in the ultimate race at the championship venue. [general NASCAR format understanding]
• Historically, drivers who excel in late-season momentum, track-specific strengths, and team reliability at the championship track tend to have the edge. Recent champions have often balanced strong top-fives and multiple race wins across the season. [historical context]
• In many recent years, drivers from top-tier teams with deep resources and strong pit crews have the best odds, though a single-race outcome can overturn season-long expectations due to caution periods, pit strategy, and track position. [contextual factors]

If you’d like, provide the current season standings or the four named Championship 4 contenders, the track for the final race, and any recent outcomes from the playoff rounds. With that, it’s possible to give a more precise assessment of who has the best edge to win this year’s NASCAR Cup Series championship.