The exact outcome of Bihar’s 2025 assembly election cannot be predicted with certainty before the votes are counted and results declared. However, here’s the best-informed context and what the latest signals suggest. What typically drives Bihar election outcomes

• Voter turnout and anti-incumbency: In several Bihar elections, higher turnout has been associated with anti-incumbent sentiment, though this is not universal and depends on local dynamics. Turnout in Phase 1 of 2025 was reported as notably high, fueling both sides’ claims about momentum. This gives a potential signal that anti-incumbency could be at play, but does not guarantee the result.

• Key stakeholders: The BJP-JD(U) NDA coalition has been a long-standing contender, while the Mahagathbandhan (primarily RJD with Congress) has also mobilized strong support. The balance of power often hinges on regional issues, welfare schemes, and the appeal of chief ministerial candidates in the state’s unique political landscape.

• Phase-wise trends: Early-phase voting and subsequent phase data provide clues, but final outcomes depend on how votes translate into seats across all phases. Analysts frequently weigh voter sentiment, campaign performance, and emerging local issues as results unfold.

What the latest signals suggest (as of late Phase 1)

• There is significant messaging from both camps about gaining a decisive mandate. Some outlets projected a potential NDA edge, while others highlighted anti-incumbency opportunities favoring the Mahagathbandhan. The decisive outcome will become clearer once all phases are completed and counting concludes.

• Expert analyses emphasize Bihar’s historical patterns, where turnout and coalition dynamics interact in complex ways; past trends alone do not determine the 2025 result, but they provide useful context.

What to watch as results arrive

• Seat-by-seat results across all 243 assembly constituencies.
• Performance of major regional players beyond the main alliances (smaller parties and independents can influence crucial seats).
• Post-count messaging and whether coalitions manage to form a stable government with a clear majority.

Direct answer
At this moment, it is not possible to definitively state who will win Bihar’s 2025 election. The outcome will depend on the complete Phase 2 results, overall vote shares translating into seats, and post-count coalition formation. For the most reliable conclusion, await official results from the election commission and subsequent government formation announcements.