The upcoming NFL game between the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars on September 21, 2025, is considered to be close, with Jacksonville slightly favored by 1 to 1.5 points by oddsmakers. Jacksonville holds a 55% win probability according to simulations, with the predicted final score around Jaguars 22, Texans 21, making it a very tight matchup. However, some experts lean toward a Houston Texans upset because of their strong road performance history against AFC South teams and a solid defensive unit despite a slower start this season. Jacksonville has shown offensive creativity but has some consistency issues. Thus, Jacksonville is the favorite, but Houston has a credible chance to win, especially as a road underdog.

In summary:

• Jacksonville Jaguars are slight favorites at home.
• Houston Texans have a strong road game record and a solid defense.
• The game is predicted to be close with a one-score difference.
• Houston could pull off an upset given the difficult early schedule for Jacksonville.

This game is expected to be competitive and the winner is not a certainty.