Bitcoin’s near-term path is uncertain and depends on a mix of macro factors, regulatory developments, and market sentiment. Based on current conditions and recent market dynamics, here’s a concise view:

• Short-term outlook: Bitcoin often experiences volatility around macro announcements (interest rates, inflation data, regulatory news). If risk appetite improves and institutional demand remains supportive, BTC can test higher levels; if risk-off moves persist, it may pull back toward recent support zones.
• Key levels to watch:
  • Support: in the sub-$100k area, with closer attention to recent swing lows around the mid-to-high $90k range.
  • Resistance: psychological and technical hurdles near prior cycle highs, frequently around the $100k–$120k band, then higher if sustained buying momentum returns.
• Drivers that could push BTC higher:
  • Continued adoption of Bitcoin-related financial products (ETFs/ETPs, futures, institutional deployment).
  • Dovish macro signals (lower interest rates, liquidity conditions) that favor risk assets.
  • Positive regulatory clarity and mainstream integration (payments, custodianship, on-chain infrastructure).
• Risks to the upside:
  • Regime shifts in monetary policy or renewed inflation concerns, which may keep crypto as a hedge but could also trigger volatility.
  • Market pullbacks in other risk assets that spill over into crypto.
• Risks to the downside:
  • Regulatory crackdowns or negative headlines affecting exchange solvencies, liquidity, or custody.
  • Major macro shocks or a sharp shift in investor sentiment away from high-volatility assets.

If a more precise, data-driven forecast is desired, please specify the time horizon (e.g., next 1 week, 1 month, 3 months) and whether to focus on technical indicators, on-chain metrics, or macro/regulatory scenarios. I can tailor a probabilistic outlook and outline potential scenarios with target levels and probabilities.