Direct answer: There’s no fixed forecast for how far in advance flights will be canceled; it depends on the underlying cause (weather, ATC staffing, mechanical issues, policy directives) and the specific airline and airport conditions at any given time. However, during widespread disruptions (for example, due to severe weather or government-mimicked shutdown scenarios), cancellations can begin days in advance and progressively intensify as the situation evolves, with airlines sometimes announcing planned reductions 24–72 hours prior to travel and up to several days for broader operational changes.

Context and scenarios to watch

• System-wide disruptions (weather crises, major air-traffic control issues, or government-directed reductions) typically show early signals a few days before peak impact, with airlines issuing advisories and rebooking options ahead of time.

• When there is a government or regulator-driven reduction (as opposed to weather), airlines may publish schedule changes for the upcoming days, and airports often display updated departure information promptly to minimize passenger confusion.

• Individual cancellations can still occur with little notice if an issue arises close to departure, so ongoing status checks are essential, especially within the 7-day window before travel and for travelers with tight connections.

Practical guidance

• Monitor official airline channels and the FAA/transportation authority dashboards for updates, since they publish real-time status changes and 7-day guidance on status updates for affected flights.

• Check flight status frequently, as cancellations and delays can change hour by hour during disruption periods; use airline apps, websites, and airport displays for the latest info.

• Consider flexible options: refundable options, rebooking policies, and travel insurance where applicable; airlines have been offering refunds or credits in some disruption scenarios, though policies vary.

If you’re planning travel soon, I can tailor guidance once you share:

• Your departure and destination, travel dates, and airline preference.
• Whether you’re dealing with an announced disruption or just planning ahead.
• Any constraints (connections, timing, budget) to optimize rebooking or alternative routing.