Max Verstappen is on the verge of winning his third F1 world championship title. Here are the points permutations for Verstappen to win the championship:

• Verstappen will be crowned champion in Qatar for a third successive season if he leaves Qatar with a lead of 146 points or more over his closest rival.

• With six Grand Prix races left in 2023 offering a total of 180 points, Verstappens lead over Sergio Perez stands at 177 points. By the arithmetic of the championship, Verstappen needs to leave Qatar with a lead of 146 points or more over Perez to win the championship.

• The earliest Verstappen can win the title is at the Qatar Sprint race in October. If he finishes sixth or higher in the Sprint race, he will be crowned champion even if Perez takes the full eight points.

• If Verstappen wins in Japan and Perez is unable to score, he’d be only 177 points clear going into the Japanese Grand Prix. So as it stands, the earliest Verstappen can win his third title is in Qatar.

• There are still 206 points up for grabs, which means Verstappen cannot close out the title in Japan. The earliest he can now seal the championship is in Qatar.

In summary, Verstappen needs to leave Qatar with a lead of 146 points or more over Perez to win the championship. The earliest he can win the title is at the Qatar Sprint race in October, where he needs to finish sixth or higher.