In Afghanistan in 2025, the situation remains deeply challenging and unstable. The Taliban continues to exert strict control with severe repression, especially against women and girls, including restrictions on education, employment, and freedom of movement. Human rights violations persist, and the country faces one of the world's worst humanitarian crises, with nearly half the population requiring humanitarian assistance due to widespread food insecurity, lack of healthcare, and displacement. Additionally, millions of Afghan refugees are returning from neighboring countries, overwhelming already fragile support systems. This situation is compounded by ongoing violence, internal instability, and reduced international aid, with the Taliban's governance failing to gain broad international recognition or access to aid based on human rights conditions.

Specifically regarding what will happen next:

• The humanitarian crisis will likely deepen unless significant aid is restored and governance improves.
• Women and minorities will continue to face harsh restrictions under Taliban law.
• Returnees will continue to strain resources.
• International engagement remains cautious and limited, with some aid bypassing the Taliban to reach people through UN and other agencies.
• Security threats from groups like ISKP and internal Taliban conflicts may persist, maintaining instability.