The 2025 Big 12 Championship Game scenarios are focused on four key teams: Texas Tech, BYU, Utah, and Arizona State. Texas Tech and BYU control their own destiny, but several complex combinations remain possible heading into the final week of play.
Teams Still Alive
- Texas Tech (7-1 Big 12)
- BYU (7-1)
- Utah (6-2)
- Arizona State (6-2)
Clinching Scenarios
Texas Tech
- Clinches a championship game berth with a win over West Virginia this week.
- Also clinches if Arizona State or BYU loses their final game.
BYU
- Advances with a win over UCF.
- Also advances if Arizona State loses, or if Utah loses and Texas Tech also loses.
Arizona State
- Makes the title game if they beat Arizona, BYU loses, and either Kansas or Texas Tech lose.
- Also reaches the game if they win, BYU loses, and Texas Tech loses.
- Another scenario: wins over Arizona, while BYU loses and Utah loses and Texas Tech loses.
Utah
- Most challenging scenario: needs a win over Kansas, a BYU win over UCF, a win for Arizona State over Arizona, and a Texas Tech loss to West Virginia to advance.
Tiebreakers
- Most scenarios are subject to Big 12 tiebreakers, often decided by head-to-head records and records against common opponents.
- Texas Tech and BYU hold tiebreaker edges over Utah, and Arizona State owns the tiebreaker over BYU and Utah in three-team ties.
Probabilities
- Texas Tech and BYU are heavy favorites to make the championship, with probabilities over 55% each.
- Utah and Arizona State have much longer odds, under 15%.
These scenarios ensure a tense final week as each contender’s fate could depend not just on their own result, but on the outcomes across the conference.
